Author Archives: jimgilvin

Facts are stubborn things

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Years ago I noticed that the people who champion high density development as being a solution to traffic, job creation or pollution invariably have no empirical evidence to support their claims. New urbanism is not a science it is a religion because it relies on blind faith from those that believe in it. I mention this because a new post over on newgeography.com discusses this extraordinary phenomenom.

The piece is titled Planning Decisions Must be Based on Facts and you should read the whole thing here.  Below is the part I found most fascinating:

We are told that high-density imposed on areas originally designed  for low density is good for the environment; that it provides greater housing  choice, that it reduces housing cost, that it encourages people on to public  transport; that it leads to a reduction in motor vehicle use and that it saves  on infrastructure costs for government. Not only do none of these claims stand  up to scrutiny in any significant way, the contrary mostly prevails.

Movements advocating  high-density show characteristics of an ideology, their members’ enthusiasm  resulting in a less than objective approach. The desire by these individuals to  be socially and environmentally responsible and to identify with a group  marketing these imagined benefits is understandable. Some may even benefit  professionally. However the result is policies for which no objective favorable  justification can be provided and which are not wanted by the greater community  who have to live with the consequences.

A while back a transit supporter became beligerent when I suggested MARTA trains were a horribly expensive and inefficient way of  trying to solve Atlanta’s transportation issues. In trying to prove me wrong the transit believer cited a 100 or so page paper to support his claim that MARTA would help create jobs.

Much to his dismay I  actually read the report and found this line clearly written among the pages otherwise filled with transit supporting propaganda: “Certainly the study results do not indicate a causal relationship between increased access to public transit and increased labor participation.”

So the report that was being used to justify MARTA expansion clearly stated that there was no evidence it would actually help create jobs. Did the transit supporter realize his mistake and change his opinion? Of course not. He got even angrier at me for pointing out the truth.

Facts are stubborn things while faith is the belief in something despite a lack of evidence. I find that when people start using terms like “smart growth” and “sustainability” it is because they generally have no facts to support their faith.

The fallacy of mass transit as a transportation solution

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There is a new article on newgeography.com that once again illustrates how misguided mass transit supporters are when they offer public transportation as a viable solution to Atlanta’s traffic problem. The article is entitled “Transit: The 4 percent solution” and you can read the whole thing here. Below are a few highlights and you can click on the graphs to see larger versions:

A new Brookings  Institution report provides an unprecedented glimpse into the lack of potential  for transit to make a more meaningful contribution to mobility in the nation’s  metropolitan areas.

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… according to Brookings, only seven percent of jobs in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas can be reached  by residents in 45 minutes during the morning peak period (when transit service  is the most intense). Among the 29 metropolitan areas with more than 2,000,000  population, the 45 minute job access average was 5.6 percent, ranging from 12.6  percent in Boston to 1.3 percent in Riverside-San Bernardino. The New York metropolitan area’s 45 minute job access figure was 9.8 percent (Figure 1).

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Transit’s overall median work trip travel time was  more than double that of driving alone (Figure 3).

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More money cannot significantly  increase transit access to jobs. Since 1980, transit spending (inflation adjusted)  has risen five times as fast as transit ridership. A modest goal of doubling 30  minute job access to between 6 and 8 percent would require much more than  double the $50 billion being spent on transit today.

Moreover, there is no  point to pretending that traffic will get so bad that people will abandon their  cars for transit (they haven’t anywhere) or that high gas prices will force  people to switch to transit. No one switches to transit for trips to places transit  doesn’t go or where it takes too long.

There is a great deal of information I have not included here so please read the entire article to understand the context before drawing any conclusions for yourself. But the fact remains that there are volumes of evidence showing transit is not a practical solution to Atlanta’s traffic problems yet many of our area’s transportation decision makers choose to ignore those facts.

Even with a transit system subsidized by billions of dollars each year in a metropolitan area as dense as New York City there are fewer than 10% of the residents that can get to work on transit in less than 45 minutes. That isn’t a solution it is a problem.

Rose colored glasses will keep me from being obese, bearded and supercilious no more

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This afternoon as I walked to get my mail I noticed a leaflet of newsprint laying perchance in my driveway. As I bowed to discard the refuse I noticed a loquacious dissertation explaining the futility of my desire to avoid becoming an obese, bearded writer with a penchant for using haughty language.

For years I have tried with varying degrees of success to avoid being obese, bearded and verbally supercilious. But having read the brilliant sermon from the hallowed newsprint scattered on lawns I finally realize what I fool I have been.

Before my epiphany I believed that if I chose not to be fat I should simply stop eating. Now I see that it was rose colored glasses obstructing my vision. But now the petal hued blindfold is gone and I realize that obesity is my fate; a fate that was sealed years ago when the Department of Transportation built a road between my home and Krispy Kreme. To refrain from gorging on doughnuts when there is a road between me and Krispy Kreme is the mindset of a simpleton. Humans can’t stop eating any more than a city can stick to its zoning code.

What a naive fool I was. And just as I now realize how naive it was to avoid gluttony I also realize I was wrong to avoid growing a beard.

You see… just as I had previously hoped to avoid becoming obese… I had also hoped to remain clean shaven. I don’t want a beard. When I was a single guy living in Atlanta in 1993 I had a beard for a while and that was fine for that period of my life. But now I’m married with children and I don’t want a beard. Beards are hot and itchy and give people the impression that a man is not trustworthy.

Yet the epistle in the yard also changed my view toward growing a beard. Now I recognize how unreasonable I have been to remain clean shaven when some people would prefer I let my whiskers grow. Of course I could make it unpleasant for bearded people to be around me but that is just selfish. How dare I not accomodate others? If I moved my family to midtown would the residents not tear down a condo tower to accommodate my desire for a single family home on a cul de sac? Of course they would. So it is only fitting that I accommodate beard lovers by growing one myself. How could I have been so blind?

But I can see clearly now. The rain is gone. I can let hair follicles grow away.

The third epiphany I had while reading the circular today was that I can no longer callously choose to use plainspoken language when writing my blog posts. Within this quaint village there is a professional columnist that has written for Alpharetta’s weekly newspaper since the golden days when MARTA was SMARTA and he chooses to embellish his work with beautifully obscure words like “embracement” and “lebensraum”. How thoughtless it is of me to disdain such verbiage and make his prose seem arrogant in comparison. Thusly I will heretofore endeavor to inscribe in the most supercilious circumambages. To do otherwise would be like forcing my readers to sit through a movie filled with tawdry dialog such as, “Frankly my dear I don’t give a damn.”

Providence has seen fit to share its vast wisdom in the form of a free newspaper. For that I will always be grateful. I was blind but now I see.

From this day forward, rose colored glasses will keep me from being obese, bearded and supercilious no more!

Vultures fighting before the taxpayers even have a sniffle

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According to the AJC:

Racial divisions came to the surface Wednesday as mayors and county commissioners met to build unity for a transportation initiative.

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After four white men newly hired as consultants introduced the strategy for the referendum’s communications campaign, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed said he was “stunned” that there was no woman or nonwhite person among them.

“The four people that presented do not represent the 10-county area at all,” Reed said. “I want to be very clear and go on the record that this is a huge problem.  And if they want to go down this road … then they’re going to lose.”

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“I think what you saw was an obvious problem,” said Nathaniel Smith, a founder of the Partnership for Southern Equity, which works for fairness in growth issues. “If they don’t find ways to include various aspects of our region and create a process that includes authentic engagement from the bottom up, this whole referendum is going to crash and burn, and to be frank with you, it deserves to.”

They say that politics makes strange bedfellows and Georgia’s transportation tax increase is a perfect example. The opportunity to distribute billions of dollars more for constituents and political supporters has tempted race baiters from the city of Atlanta into bed with the white, suburban businessmen who stand to make billions from land development deals. A match made in heaven! This should be an interesting pillow fight to watch.

Read the whole thing here.

AJC: “Cherokee could be tough sell on transit vote”

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The latest edition in the AJC’s ongoing series about the upcoming vote to increase Georgia’s sales tax explores the reaction in Cherokee County. I will post some highlights below but you should read the whole thing here.

But it’s an open question whether using part of the transportation tax for mass transit somewhere else in the region might be a lightning rod for residents in the distant suburbs, including Cherokee.

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A public-private project to add toll lanes to I-75/I-575 in Cobb and Cherokee counties could wind up on the final list of projects the tax would fund.

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“People in our group will actively oppose it,” he said. “We think the government needs to back off and let this economy recover a little bit first.”

The snippets above illustrate three of the biggest challenges facing the state of Georgia and the various Chambers of Commerce which are pushing the tax increase.

First, the majority of urban dwellers won’t vote for higher taxes to pay for roads while the majority of suburban dwellers won’t vote for higher taxes to pay for mass transit they won’t use. Watching tax increase advocates attempt to convince both groups they will get what they want should be entertaining.

Second, will taxpayers vote for higher taxes to build toll roads that will take even more money out of their pockets? I can’t speak for Cherokee County residents but based on our experience with the false promises about GA 400 tolls in Fulton County I personally wouldn’t make that mistake again.

Third, the U.S. economy is in the tank so is it really the time to take more money from people suffering from 10% unemployment, sinking property values and rampant inflation for food and gas? I think politicians are underestimating how sick taxpayers are of being asked to did deeper and deeper for more taxes regardless of how good the cause.

There are a lot of politicians, consultants, lobbyists and developers dedicated to passing this tax increase and don’t doubt for a minute that they will do whatever it takes to get it passed. They will also promise gullible voters anything to get their vote so don’t forget my maxim when it comes to tax increases,”Once you vote to give the government your money they will do with it what they damn well please.”

Ta- Dahhhh! The new and improved Alpharetta city center is unveiled.

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Unfortunately there isn’t much information available on Alpharetta’s website. All the city has posted so far is a few “Conceptual renderings” and a sales pitch.

That isn’t enough information to make an informed decision on the merits of the proposal but if you want to see them they are here: http://www.alpharetta.ga.us/index.php?p=501

Since the devil is in the details and the details aren’t online… I hope the city will be making more information available soon.

The public transportation money pit in perspective

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*Editors note:Please read the update posted below the original article*

The AJC has started a series of articles designed to give a comprehensive assessment of Georgia’s transportation situation as the state decides whether to raise taxes in the hope of solving the state’s transportation problems. The first article in the series is titled Atlanta at heart of area’s transit issues and you can read the whole thing here.

As the AJC continues their series I will examine their coverage from my own perspective and today I want to focus on the paragraph below because it illustrates beautifully how the absurd inefficiency of public transportation and the resulting cost to taxpayers is overlooked by proponents as well as those responsible for covering transportation issues.

One thing Atlanta wants to do, if the project makes the final list, is pump $861 million into 
MARTA to bring the “system into a state of good repair.” Tom Weyandt, Atlanta’s senior policy adviser for transportation, said MARTA currently has a $1.6 billion backlog on repair projects.

The current MARTA sales tax costs Dekalb and Fulton County taxpayers more than 300 Million Dollars a year but the system still has 1.6 Billion Dollars  worth of maintenance projects that they can’t afford to pay for? In these days of trillion dollar federal deficits people have become completely desensitized to astronomical numbers but let us take a moment to put 1.6 Billion Dollars in perspective. This is what 1.6 Billion Dollars looks like: $1,600,000,000.00.

According to the 2010 census there are now 420,000 people living in the city of Atlanta so that 1.6 Billion Dollars would be $3,809,524 for every person that lives in Atlanta. So after decades of collecting tens of billions of dollars in sales taxes, MARTA needs almost 4 Million Dollars from each man, woman and child in the city of Atlanta just to stay running! Since the average person in Atlanta makes about $50,000 a year, each resident would have to work 76 years just to pay for the repairs that MARTA already needs but it wouldn’t even begin to expand capacity, improve service or reduce congestion in any way.

The numbers being tossed around by public transportation advocates aren’t just numbers, they are money that has to be collected from people that are suffering double digit unemployment along with plummeting property values and skyrocketing prices for food and gas. Politicians and bureaucrats may treat numbers with nine zeros in them like play money but taxpayers are the ones that have to pay the bill so we need to keep this money pit in perspective.

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Update 5/23/2011 7:30 p.m.

As some of you may have noticed my math on the post above was off by almost a trillion dollars and the result was a post which exaggerated the projected per capita cost to Atlanta residents a thousand-fold. Oops! It was a silly mistake which occuured because my calculator wouldn’t function in the billions and in my haste I incorrectly adjusted the numbers twice. I’d like to thank Michael Hadden for pointing out my error.

I do find it ironic that while trying to show how difficult it is to put transportation spending in perspective I actually ended up proving the point by illustrating how easily an error of 1000 percent could go unnoticed. I apologize for my carelessness and will immediately refund each of my readers a prorated share of their subscription fee. 😉

Senior housing shenanigans

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In case you hadn’t noticed there is a developer trying to get land zoned for low income, federally subsidized senior apartments at the corner of Morris Road and Webb Bridge Road in Alpharetta. The proposal is being championed by local senior activist, Dot Benson, and you can read more background in this article from the Alpharetta Revue.

Despite Ms. Benson’s campaign to support this rezoning there is a great deal of opposition to the project from Alpharetta residents and I have received a number of emails from people explaining why it is a bad idea. Curiously the majority of the emails have come from people I would consider to be seniors themselves. At some point I will address this zoning issue in more detail but right now I would like to point out something about the senior housing proposal that I find unconscionable. City employees are actively lobbying on behalf of the senior center and using my money to do it.

Below is an email apparently sent from a Parks and Rec employee which outlines the use of public resources to champion the developer’s proposal:

For those of you who missed the wonderful AGAC luncheon, we want to thank the AGAC BOD for supplying the food and the speakers for today, we had a wild day!!

We wanted to inform you of a topic we discussed today and invite you to a town hall meeting regarding plans for a Preston Ridge Senior Community. Fulton County Strategies for Healthier Community, chaired by Ms. Dorothy Benson, has enlisted the assistance of Atlas Development Group and Carlisle Development Group to undertake the development of the much needed AFFORDABLE HOUSING, age-restricted “senior” RENTAL housing in Alpharetta. The development will be located at the intersection of Webb Bridge and Morris Rd.  They have applied to the City of Alpharetta for a rezoning of the property which will enable us to move forward with the contemplated development.

This development will provide 90 senior apartments at affordable rents as well as a wide array of amenities and social/recreational activities. WE NEED YOUR SUPPORT in petitioning for rezoning of this property. To show support, please meet in the lobby of the AAC either on Thurs. June 2nd for the Alpharetta Planning Commission Meeting, leaving here at 6:45pm or Monday, June 20th at the City Council meeting, leaving here at 6:45pm as we will be providing transportation.

If you are in favor of this and cannot make any of these town hall meetings, please come to our office and sign a petition. Thanks!

***** ***** ******

Administrative Assistant 1

Alpharetta Adult Activity Center at North Park

13450 Cogburn Rd.

Alpharetta, GA  30004

678-297-****

www.alpharetta.ga.us/recreation

I have removed the sender’s name and phone number from the above email because I have not yet been able to verify the validity of the letter from an independent source. But the people who forwarded the note to me have been impeccable sources in the past and I have no doubt about the accuracy of the email.

People can disagree about zoning issues. It happens all the time. But the thought of tax dollars being used to finance a political agenda infuriates me. My money being used to provide free transportation to seniors so they can lobby on behalf of housing subsidized by more of my money? Are you kidding me?

The Alpharetta Parks and Recreation Department is generally a fine group of people and they have done a great job building an organization that we can be proud of here. But there is absolutely no excuse for city employees being allowed to use public resources to fund lobbying activities on behalf of a developer, especially when the project in question will require even more tax dollars.

I hope the Parks and Rec department will get to the bottom of these shenanigans soon.